Gulfnews : The World Is Clueless About Syria
Speculation is rife in Syrian Street on how and when the current situation will end. The pro-regime street of course, still in complete denial of the world that has fallen apart around it, insists on belittling it as nothing but a “crisis” claiming that thanks to Russian support, Bashar Al Assad will stay in power until his term ends in July 2014. The boiling anti-regime demonstrators, the Syrian opposition and critical day-to-day Syrians proudly refer to it as a “revolution” claiming that survival until 2014 is impossible.
Optimists in the opposition believe that the regime will fall anytime between September and December 2012.
Realists don’t abide by a specific date, but shake their head in dismay when asked for a timeframe, saying that it will take “longer than everybody expects.” Both camps argue, very rightfully, that neither the Americans nor the Russians want to see a speedy redemption of the stalemate in Syria and apart from lip service aimed at media consumption, neither side is really shaken by more than the 16,000 Syrians killed in the 15 months of violence. Damascus itself was set ablaze on July 15-16, after all, and yet both Moscow and Washington stood by and watched.
It is safe to say, however, that the international community, headed by the US, has mandated Russia to come up with something creative for Syria between now and next January, when a new president is sworn-in at the White House. They are unwilling to go any further on Syria during Election Year. Despite all assurances from world capitals, there probably will be a surgical military strike anytime after January 2013, if the status quo does not change in Damascus. By then, the Syrian Revolt would be approaching its third year and nobody knows where the death toll will stand by then. The Americans believe that if assurances are given — vis-à-vis continuation of its political, economic and military influence in Syria — Russia will not mind a situation where the regime stays, but the president goes.